John Heaton (jheaton) wrote,
John Heaton

Bad prediction

I was looking at entries to my original web journal recently and found a post in which I wrote about the results of that year's Sight & Sound film polls, in which I wrote:

One of the interesting things about these lists is that the films are pretty old. The most recent film on the critics list is The Godfather: Part II, released in 1974. The directors did a little better, finding room for Raging Bull, released in 1980. It's possible that it just takes time for a film to reach gain broad approval; 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) didn't crack the top ten until 1992; Singin' In the Rain (1952) made the list for the first time in 1982. Hell, even Citizen Kane took 21 years to show up. So it's possible we'll see a film from the 1980s on the 2012 list.

A few days later I took it a step further:

I predict that in ten years, we'll see the first 1980s film break into the critics poll. And that when it happens, it will be an American film. Check back in 2012.

Well, the 2012 poll was released last year. You may have seen the list then, but here it is again:

  1. Vertigo
  2. Citizen Kane
  3. Tokyo Story
  4. La Règle du jeu (The Rules of the Game)
  5. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
  6. 2001: A Space Odyssey
  7. The Searchers
  8. Man with a Movie Camera
  9. The Passion of Joan of Arc

Astute observers will note the absence of any films from the 1980s on that list. Thus is it demonstrated that I am a bad predictor of things.

Tags: halcyon days of yore, lists of ten things, movies

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