I will say that I expect The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King to win many awards, and I even think it will deserve many of them. I wouldn't have voted fot it for Best Picture (I would have voted for Mystic River) though I won't be upset if it wins. For one thing, getting upset over something that is, in the long run, so completely trivial, is a foolish exercise. Also, getting upset that the best film didn't win Best Picture is a bit like getting upset that the sun rose in the east. And even though I liked one of the nominees better, I liked LOTR more more than the other three, so it's not like, say, Ghost winning Best Original Screenplay or something absurd like that.
Just for kicks, here's who I would have voted for in the so-call major categories:
1. PICTURE: Mystic River
2. ACTOR: Johnny Depp
3. ACTRESS: Charlize Theron
4. SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tim Robbins
5. SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Abstain (I didn't see any of the nominated performances)
6. DIRECTOR: Peter Jackson
7. ANIMATED FEATURE: The Triplets of Belleville
8. ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Finding Nemo
9. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Mystic River
I expect my choices will prevail in nos. 3, 4, 6, and 9.