Well, eleven out of 24 isn't bad, right? I didn't expect the HFPA to screw me over by rewarding merit over celebrity in the Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama category. Also, I'd like to point out my logic was flawless when it came to the Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television category: the three actresses from Sex and the City did, in fact, cancel each other out. Unfortunately, I forgot to factor in that Megan Mullally would be canceled out by Mary Louise Parker. Oh well.
I've learned a few things tonight:
- Trust your gut. My first instinct was to pick Lost in Translation for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, but I talked myself out of it.
- When in doubt, pick the foreigners. In retrospect, it was obvious that Anthony LaPaglia and Ricky Gervais would respectively win Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Drama and Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy, because they are respectively Australian and British.
Don't become over-reliant on logic.As my correct guess in Best Foreign Language Film (and my aforementioned almost-correct guess in Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television) demonstrates, logic can be a powerful tool. But my logic failed me when it came to Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television. But come to think of it, none of my rules really apply to Jeffrey Wright, so maybe this was just another instance of the HFPA abandoning its principals by awarding the best performance in a category. So never mind.
- Don't let your personal preferences get in the way. I admit it: I let my love for Arrested Development overcome my good sense. How could the HFPA pass up the opportunity to reward a show produced by the BBC? Likewise, that I don't watch 24 may have led me to discount its chances in the Best Television Series - Drama category.
So there you go. Next year, I'll do better.